Europe: Football and the threat of terror

Euro 2016 is the second largest football event in the world after the World Cup. Being held in France at the moment, it is drawing millions of visitors who congregate at transport hubs and fan zones, the biggest of which by the Eiffel Tower might attract 90,000 people. And billions of people worldwide will watch the games live on screen.

The security challenges are high. The US State Department has issued a warning about the potential terror risk, and German and French spy chiefs believe militants from the so-called Islamic State have the event in their sights. But this is merely the current threat focus in France. The background risk of terrorism right across the continent was already elevated. Here are four reasons why.

1. IS is losing at home but expanding attacks abroad
Military efforts against IS in Iraq and Syria have intensified. The group has suffered significant losses. The territory it controls has shrunk by more than one-third and is likely to reduce further. This has led to internal tensions causing the group to lose existing followers and undermining its ability to attract new ones. But as IS concedes ground at home, it is increasing atrocities overseas.

Since June 2015, IS has been linked to more than 20 international attacks – whether that includes the atrocity this weekend at an Orlando nightclub is still not clear yet. The reasons for these attacks would seem to be twofold. First, striking foreign soil helps to divert attention from its territorial losses in order to retain credibility and an aura of potency. Second, jihadi operations overseas are designed to deter further attacks by Western forces in IS strongholds in Iraq and Syria. This was underscored in Dabiq, IS's online magazine, with its headline Just terror: Let Paris be a lesson for those nations that wish to take heed.

Further erosion of IS territory may prompt increased attacks by the group in other parts of the world. This would show that IS control of land, infrastructure and resources is not a prerequisite for the group to propagate terror. Even if defeated ‘at home', the threat from IS will persist.

2. Competition between Al-Qaida and IS intensifies
In 2014, there was a schism between IS and Al-Qaida when the leader of IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, proclaimed his ‘Caliphate' independently, without the assent of al-Qaida's senior leadership. Since then, both entities have been vying for pre-eminence within the global jihadi movement and the rivalry is entrenched. Both may be at war with the West and committed to the ultimate revival of an Islamic caliphate, but they are deeply divided over strategy, leadership and who should be at the vanguard of the jihadi cause.

While IS has taken much of the spotlight from Al-Qaida through its attacks across the globe, the last year has seen Al-Qaida and its associated groups responding to the IS challenge more aggressively. Militant groups under the Al-Qaida umbrella have stepped up their attacks.

A case in point was the assault on a hotel in Mali's capital, Bamako, in November 2015. It was carried out by Al-Qaida's North African affiliate, Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. The militants took 170 hostages and left 30 civilians dead. It was no coincidence that this happened within days of IS claiming responsibility for the murder of 130 people in the Paris attacks on 13 November.

Within the Al-Qaida affiliates, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is the group most capable of a strike. It has benefited from the current turmoil in Yemen and has issued two communiqués calling for more jihadi attacks against the West. Moreover Ibrahim Hassan Asiri, AQAP's chief bomb-maker – responsible for the 2009 Christmas Day bomb plot and the 2010 cargo plane bomb plot – is still at large.

3. More sophisticated attacks are possible
In Europe, the more likely scenarios would be conventional arms and small suicide bomb attacks similar to those witnessed this weekend in Orlando, in March in Brussels, and last November in Paris. Yet terrorist groups - regardless of their goals - need to stay credible to their supporters. Thus Al-Qaida and IS may be compelled to orchestrate more ambitious, ‘spectacular' attacks to keep their supporters engaged: larger bombs targeting civilian airlines or even chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear attacks cannot be discounted.

Militants have also used experience on the ground in Iraq and Syria to experiment with new technology, which could translate to more catastrophic attack scenarios in the West. For example, IS has been working on using radio-controlled model aircraft to deliver improvised explosive devices. Jihadists in Iraq and Syria are also known to have developed remote-control systems for driverless vehicles to deliver IEDs without using suicide bombers.

4. European jihadists are coming back home and posing a threat
Groups such as IS have lured young individuals from European countries to the battlefields of Iraq and Syria. Those who survive combat but decide not to stay often return home and pose a significant security challenge. The US Department of Defense estimates almost 2000 foreign jihadists who have fought in Iraq or Syria have returned to Europe. While most returning jihadists don't end up attacking their home countries, a small number do. Moreover, returning jihadists may revitalise their cause in their homeland and act as a conduit reconnecting local groups to the global jihad.

The proliferation of extremism and global attacks provides greater insight into the workings and thinking of these groups. Through active monitoring of the evolving terrorist landscape, including targeting preferences and weapon selection, we can continue to inform terrorism models for the risk management community.

Weimeng Yeo
Principal modeler, Risk Management Solutions